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Bitcoin Trading Intelligence

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Bitcoin Trading Intelligence 08.10.15
Long Term
On a weekly scale, the market has been in a bearish trend for a long time before finding some support at the start of this year. From then on it has been predominantly sideways with choppy moves from 200-300. The market is moving in mini-swings as indicated by the red arcs in the weekly chart. For the bearish part of the swing, 5 SMA has been a hard resistance and has pro- vided some good shorting opportunities at the highs. The Bollinger bands in the weekly chart have become parallel and con- tracted to a great extent, which means there is great scope for break out trades from this point.
On a long term scale, market hasn’t been able to break middle Bollinger band and 34 SMA for some time, but in June and July market has successfully overcome these resistances respectively and has been trading above them for 5th consecutive week. Though RSI remains around 50 without giving much indication, MACD has been trading above the signal line for some time now and is ready to cross the zero line. If the MACD crosses and remains above the signal line, it is a double con- firmation for the launch of the bullish trend and would be an opportunity to capture good bullish moves. The proper entry points for such trades would be around 250-255 region, which has 34 SMA and middle Bollinger band as points of support. The targets could be high of previous month, upper Bollinger band of weekly and weekly 100 SMA.
If the market breaks out on the downside, then it would find good support around 214-227 region which houses weekly 200 SMA and lower Bollinger band. These prices have proven to be strong points of support in the past and are good targets for break out shorts at 250.
Mid Term
In the daily chart, the market has rallied considerably from 217.26 in June to 317.50 in July and now is in a state of correction for the move. On marking the Fibonacci retracement levels for the move, it can be observed that market is trading in between the 50%-61.8% retracement price levels. The region between 250-255 has daily 100 and 200 SMA’s and also the 61.8% re- tracement level at 255.16. Hence this zone can be considered as Zone of heavy support as it also backed by 34 SMA and Mid- dle Bollinger band from weekly chart.A crucial aspect which might indicate a trend reversal would be the ‘Golden Crossover’ of 100 and 200 SMA’s in July. The last time a 100-200 SMA crossover happened, the market continuously traded below the two SMA’s resulting in a completely bearish trend which was supported by fundamentals, Now that market is trading above the crossover, this might be the onset of the trend. Though the MACD is showing a bearish signal owing to the short term fundamental affects, RSI has been approaching the oversold region. In the medium term, it appears that 255 could be tested before the anticipated bullish move.
The decision of Bitfinex to leave New York because of BitLicense has resulted in a negative sentiment among the market par- ticipants which prompted a bearish move on Saturday with comparably low volumes. This move as shown in the hourly chart, was opposed by heavy support at 261. The lower Bollinger band flattened at this point, indicating a possible trend reversal and a good short covering rally. The MACD indicator has just crossed the signal line and even the RSI has been in the oversold region for some time now which implicates impending bullishness in the market. The possible entry points for quick momen- tum (short covering) trades would be around 262 and possible targets would be hourly middle Bollinger band and 34 SMA. With change in the trend patterns of SMAs and Bollinger bands supporting, these short term trades can be converted to medi- um term trades with targets taken from daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis
The fall of Mt.Gox was the onset of a bearish trend that has plagued the market sentiment for more than a year in Bitcoin trading. While the question about the missing coinage is still unanswered, Former CEO of Mt.Gox, Mark Karpeles was arrested in Japan on 1st of August on the suspicion that he has illicitly added a million dollars to an account under his control. While any news regarding Mt.Gox will continue to have a negative impact on the sentiment, adding to the existing woes BitLicense in New York and AB-1326 : California’s Bitcoin License have affected the market in the later part of last week. Major Exchanges like Bitfinex, Kraken, ShapeShift and many other Bitcoin related startups have blocked residents of New York from their services. While AB-1326 is engrossing similar opposition, these regulation imperative road blocks are expected to have a short term effect on Bitcoin Trading as of now. The representatives at G7 summit which was held at Germany this year in June, have pledged to support for the ‘appropriate regulation’ of virtual currencies. How would these regulations affect the current setup and crypto currency trading is to be seen.
On the positive front, NASDAQ adopting Blockchain Technology to for its stock trading platform to improve the efficiency of financial transactions has been one of the major news in the Bitcoin Circle. Launch of tØ(tee-zero) by Patrick Byrne, Chairman and CEO of Overstock.com at Nasdaq headquarters on 5th of August has fortified the sentiment among the Bitcoin community. tØ is a blockchain-powered private and public equities trading platform that can work with any decentralized ledger. Symbiont, a bitcoin startup has come up with the innovation of ‘Smart Securities’, which uses the blockchain technology to make it quicker and easier to prove the ownership of assets or transfer them between buyers and sellers. Quant specialists from Wall-Street giants are now opting to join Bitcoin startups which is a strong indication that the potential of Bitcoins and Blockchain technology has been acknowledged by Wall-Street and further applications of the same in further asset classes is not a distant dream.
From a political standpoint, US Presidential candidate Rick Perry has revealed his stance on bitcoin by saying that he supports ‘regulatory breathing room’ for digital currencies such as bitcoins. London’s Mayoral candidate Galloway has openly suggested the idea of tracking the city’s budget by putting it on blockchain and letting people know how the funds are being directed. British Prime Minister, David Cameroon’s inclusion of bitcoin company, Blockchain in the trade delegations with Asia, is an indication that UK Government maybe positioning to take up a critical role in the field of cryptocurrencies. With Australian senate’s recognition of Bitcoins as a form of currency, any news regarding the acceptance of bitcoins on the political front can reinforce positive sentiment in the market in the coming days.
Across the borders, Brazil has recorded its highest volumes last month. Brazil which is the world’s major exporter of soft commodities has seen rising levels of inflation over the years. Also with July-August being the harvest months for the crops, it might be possible that the increased volumes might be the result of the merchant transactions being carried out in bitcoins. Countries with weakening economies would likely see Bitcoins as their exit option for future. With the release that major banks like Barclays, BNP Paribas experimenting with altcoins and the Dutch ABN AMRO executives positive statements about blockchain, further adoption of Bitcoins into the existing financial services system looks more likely and is definitely going to be positive news for the Bitcoin Market Participants.
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